• 10-year baseline Corporate Aircraft Market Forecast predicts 9,950 deliveries, excluding very light jet segment, annually from 2007 to 2016 representing market-wide revenues of $227 billion US
• 20-year Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast calls for 11,200 new deliveries in 20- to 149-seat market, worth $393 billion US
Today, Bombardier Aerospace released its annual aircraft market forecasts for the business and commercial aircraft markets.
Overall demand for aircraft in the segments in which Bombardier competes will remain strong. As well, there is a geographic shift towards international markets and a structural shift towards more cost-effective aircraft. Bombardier’s key product families – business jets and regional aircraft – are expected to continue to generate strong interest across all markets.
“With its comprehensive portfolios of innovative business and regional aircraft, with its state-of-the-art technologies and focus on customer services, Bombardier is well-positioned for continued success,” said Michael McAdoo, Vice-President, Strategy and Business Development, Bombardier Aerospace.
Business Aircraft Market Forecast
In the 10-year period from 2007 to 2016, Bombardier’s Business Aircraft Market Forecast predicts that corporate aircraft manufacturers will deliver approximately 995 business jets annually, excluding the very light jet segment, a substantial increase from the industry average of over 572 business jet deliveries annually during the 1997 to 2006 period.
The total forecasted 9,950 deliveries over the 10-year period represent revenues of approximately $227 billion US for the industry.
The growth in business jet deliveries is expected to continue over the next four years, continuing to improve on the record set in 2006, then remain strong for the following six years. Based on the industry’s continued robust order intake and manufacturers’ solid backlogs, Bombardier believes the business aircraft industry will reach this plateau two years later than it had forecasted previously.
Bombardier’s forecast also indicates that primary market drivers continue to be positive or stable. These include manufacturers’ current average order backlog of approximately 24 months; a sustained U.S. gross domestic product growth is expected to remain at close to three per cent for the next 10 years; strong order intake from international markets, now representing approximately 50 per cent of the total market, and a number of new aircraft programs scheduled to enter service over the next two years.
Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast
According to Bombardier’s Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast, demand for 20- to 149-seat commercial aircraft is expected to reach approximately 11,200 new aircraft in the 20-year period ranging from 2007 to 2026, an increase in demand from last year’s forecast. Forecasted demand is valued at approximately $393 billion U.S. based on manufacturers’ aircraft list prices.
Airline capacity is expected to double over the next 20 years. The trend towards larger aircraft, coupled with sustained higher fuel prices, will reinforce operators’ requirement for modern aircraft with low operating costs.
The forecast reflects this shift in demand to larger commercial aircraft:
- In the 20- to 59-seat aircraft segment: the forecast expects a demand of approximately 1,000 aircraft;
- In the 60- to 99-seat aircraft segment: demand is expected to reach approximately 4,300 aircraft;
- In the 100- to 149-seat aircraft segment: the forecast predicts a demand for approximately 5,900 aircraft.
The CRJ Series and Q-Series families of airliners have enabled Bombardier to be an active player, and to continue to take advantage of growth opportunities, in the regional aircraft market. Its larger cost-efficient CRJ700/CRJ900 regional jets and the Q400 turboprop are the backbone of many airline fleets worldwide. The newly launched CRJ1000, which will seat up to 100 passengers, combines the proven platform, reliability and flexible cabin configurations of its predecessors with its closest competitor having up to 15 per cent higher trip cash operating costs.
In order to address the 100-149-seat segment, Bombardier continues to refine its CSeries aircraft business plan, including optimizing the aircraft configuration to meet customers’ requirements for a more economical, flexible and passenger-oriented airliner. If launched, the target date for entry into service is 2013.
A world-leading manufacturer of innovative transportation solutions, from regional aircraft and business jets to rail transportation equipment, systems and services, Bombardier Inc. is a global corporation headquartered in Canada. Its revenues for the fiscal year ended Jan. 31, 2007, were $14.8 billion US, and its shares are traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange (BBD). News and information are available at www.bombardier.com.
Bombardier, Learjet, Challenger, Global, Flexjet, Skyjet, Skyjet International, CRJ, Q-Series, CRJ700, CRJ900, CRJ1000, Q400 and CSeries are trademarks of Bombardier Inc. or its subsidiaries.
Note to editors: A PowerPoint presentation on the Bombardier Aerospace annual market forecasts for the business and commercial aircraft markets is available on the internet at the following address: www.bombardier.com
This press release includes forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements generally can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may”, “will”, “expect”, “intend”, “anticipate”, “plan”, “foresee”, “believe” or “continue” or the negatives of these terms or variations of them or similar terminology. By their nature, forward-looking statements require Bombardier Inc. (the “Corporation”) to make assumptions and are subject to important known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which may cause the Corporation’s actual results in future periods to differ materially from forecasted results. While the Corporation considers its assumptions to be reasonable and appropriate based on current information available, there is a risk that they may not be accurate. For additional information with respect to the assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements made in this press release, please refer to the respective sections of the Corporation’s aerospace segment (“Aerospace”) and the Corporation’s transportation segment (“Transportation”) in the Management’s Discussion and Analysis of the 2006-2007 Annual Report on the Corporation’s Web site at www.bombardier.com.
Certain factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements include risks associated with general economic conditions, risks associated with the Corporation’s business environment (such as the financial condition of the airline industry, government policies and priorities, and competition from other businesses), operational risks (such as regulatory risks and dependence on key personnel, risks associated with doing business with partners, risks involved with developing new products and services, warranty and casualty claim losses, legal risks from legal proceedings, risks relating to the Corporation’s dependence on certain key customers and key suppliers, risks resulting from fixed term commitments, human resource risks and environmental risks), financing risks (such as risks resulting from reliance on government support, risks relating to financing support provided on behalf of certain customers, risks relating to liquidity and access to capital markets, risks relating to the terms of certain restrictive debt covenants and market risks, including currency, interest rate and commodity pricing risks). For more details, please see the Risks and uncertainties section in the Management’s Discussion and Analysis of the 2006-2007 Annual Report on the Corporation’s Web site at www.bombardier.com.
Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of factors that may affect future growth, results and performance is not exhaustive and undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements set forth herein reflect the Corporation’s expectations as at this date and are subject to change after such date. Unless otherwise required by applicable securities laws, the Corporation expressly disclaims any intention, and assumes no obligation to update or revise any forwardâlooking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.